Chuck Penner presented at the Western Canadian Crop Production Show this week. The general idea I get from him is that stocks to use ratio's are tight over a wide group of crops and that the world cannot take a major weather problem in the coming year without making market prices rise.
I think farms will grow less peas & flax. Farms likely stick to what they know and are reliable for growing, selling and pricing more so than in the past few years.
Wheat - acres forecasted to be up, I think that is possible.
Durum - global supplies look flat on durum so acres could be up in response to ok prices,
but last year European acreage did not respond as expected
Barley - substitutes for barley like corn are more available this season, China as a barley
buyer is the key to keeping buying high and price support. generally tight supplies
Corn - Ending stocks in the USA look to be lower, & locally corn railed in to feedlot is the
floor price for barley. So corn prices have been good, and net returns to the farmer
may stay relatively comparable other cereals.
Canola - acres forecasted to be up - I agree as the margins look good and canola is low
risk to grow
Lentil - Chuck is forecasting flat, with slightly more greens and slightly less reds. I feel like
in Alberta red lentil acres will continue to replace pea acres causing red lentil acres
Pea - Chuck is forecasting lower pea acres vs last year and I agree
Flax - acres expected to be very low, I agree as they don't pencil out well this year
Mustard - I think acres will be up more than Chuck has forecasted
Wheat, Durum, Pea, Canola:
Lentil, Flax, & Gross Margins
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