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J.P Gervais on Global Markets Agricultural Supply Chains at the Pulse & Special Crops Convention 2023

29/9/2023

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J.P Gervais led off the Pulse & Special Crops Convention in Banff on September 27 2023 with a nice recap of global economics related to agriculture. 
Some notes:


  • Canada is a massive player in global food export. 
  • Slide 4 shows how we lost value in CAD to USD in pulse markets, so not positive to Canadian pulse export values and demand . Others lost more than cad though so in relative terms our pulse value of $ is not too bad.
  • Slide 2 shows agricultural productivity over time, if we could again bring growth up to 20% from 5 -7% = $40 billion at farm level. If we need to do it with government placing rules on agriculture then it may need to be even more to compensate for the possible declines in productivity.
  • Food trends may change as western populations change due to immigration.

My favourite line from J.P.'s talk was that "trade reduces poverty and inequality = resilient and safer world" and i think that predictable and rules based trade is a key part!
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FCC Event with J.P. Gervais

26/9/2023

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We were fortunate to attend an event with J.P. Gervais this week in Calgary thanks to Farm Credit Canada.
Below are some pictures of his presentation and my commentary and notes from his presentation:
  • Inflation seems to be staying above 3% = may require more of an economic slow down. Consumer spending must come down for that to happen.
  • Pop growth this past year is the highest in 60 years.
  • To what effect does government increased taxation (carbon tax) cause more total spending by consumers and government and fuel inflation.
  • Food inflation was usually about 1% above total inflation %
  • Short term house costs are the big challenge for Canadians, longer term health care costs will be the big conversation.
  • Short and long term borrowing rate averages may not be done going up (a hike in fall 2023 or early 2024 is probably) but hard predicting where and when the trend moves.
    • Rate hike by late 2023 or early 2024
  • Cost of funds went up this quarter, 1 year rate higher vs 5 and 10 y rate (not normal) 
  • Question for borrowers: What % of your loans are coming due ? May indicate if you should take 5 year right now.
  • ​Alberta unemployment and employment levels both going up! (due to more people coming here.)
  • Markets - in theory wheat $ is lower than should be. Canola has room for upside growth. Corn and in turn Barley price is low but that’s probably the right price with lower exports of corn from the USA.
    • Ethanol market mature = stable in USA, (40% of corn used in ethanol in USA!) bio diesel room to grow in USA. (Soy and Canola)
  • 2023 profitability map - higher/opportunity land cost - lower yields means poor profitability numbers before crop insurance factored in.
  • Land rents probably follow land price increase generally, where does it slow down?
    • ​Alberta land value up 6% year over year on average.
  • Cattle:
    • Feeder cow price strong. Economic slowdown that hasn’t happened yet (or will it). Cattle profitability seems to be high with room for more upside.
      • But heifer count 12% down since 2020...
My favourite comment from J.P.:
  • Productivity gains in ag have allowed cost of food inflation to be as low as it has been.
  • Any tax on agriculture, for example carbon tax can’t be passed on by farmers, so how do we as society deal with this?
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Engaging Content

25/9/2023

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Are you considering increasing you farms brand presence? Here are some tips for engaging your audience and telling your story!
https://www.seedworld.com/captivating-your-audience-3-critical-ideas-for-engaging-content-creation/
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When do Cover Crops Release Nitrogen?

19/9/2023

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When do cover crops release nutrients and how can you benefit from the cover crop? Details here:
https://fieldcropnews.com/2023/06/when-do-cover-crops-with-and-without-manure-applied-release-nitrogen-that-can-be-used-for-my-corn-crop/
Link to cover crop seed: Cover Crops
fieldcropnews2023-brown-cover-crops_single.pdf
File Size: 312 kb
File Type: pdf
Download File

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Chickpea Flax Intercrop

19/9/2023

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A chickpea & flax intercrop can reduce Ascochyta blight risk significantly! Details below:
​https://canadianagronomist.ca/intercropping-chickpea-flax-reduces-ascochyta-blight/
chickpea-flax-intercrop.pdf
File Size: 1497 kb
File Type: pdf
Download File

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Iron Disease

19/9/2023

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Farmer Coach has an interesting blog on farm efficiencies, costs and the future of new machinery:
https://farmercoach.ca/iron-disease/
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Irrigation in 2024

19/9/2023

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Article about irrigation water risks for the 2024 season
https://www.producer.com/crops/alta-irrigators-survived-23-but-24-remains-dire/
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How Late Can I Seed Fall Crops?

19/9/2023

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AFSC crop insurance used to have hard deadlines for fall crop seeding of Sept 20th for North of the Bow River and Sept 30 for South of the Bow River. This has changed to just a recommendation a few years ago but generally adhering to those deadlines is the best practice. A good 2 week forecast can be a good indication of how late you can seed.In very dry situations we have seeded into dry soil aiming to have no seeds germinate allowing for a later but even germination or swelling of the seed when an October snowstorm eventually hits the field.

Seeding rates should be on the upper end of the chart as you seed later to make the crop fill in faster as you will get limited fall tillering with a later seeded crop. Hybrid fall rye benefits the most from tillering in the fall.

Did you know you can get paid to grow a fall rye, winter wheat, or winter triticale? Click here for details.
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Iron Disease

19/9/2023

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Farmer Coach has an interesting blog on farm efficiencies, costs and the future of new machinery:
https://farmercoach.ca/iron-disease/
0 Comments

Canterra Canola - Straight Cut & Great Pricing for October Bookings

18/9/2023

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Canterra Canola - Straight Cut & Great pricing for October Bookings
Canterra Canola has an amazing lineup of varieties that performed well in 2023. Below are trial results from around Raymond where TruFlex varieties were compared against one another and another trial comparing LibertyLink varieties. All of these lines below are pod protect and can be straight cut.
We can get you the best pricing in the marketplace!

TruFlex Trial:
https://canterra.com/performance/trials/2023-raymond-core-ag/
LibertyLink Trial:
https://canterra.com/performance/trials/2023-raymond-core-ag-ll/
 
Below are our top picks in no order for varieties to grow in 2024:
 
CS 4000 LL – High yielding LibertyLink Canola Hybrid with clubroot and blackleg resistance and excellent straight cut performance.
CS3100 TF – High yielding, full maturity TruFlex Canola Hybrid featuring PodProtect for excellent pod shatter protection. Full disease package with excellent blackleg and clubroot resistance
CS 3000TF – Mid maturity TruFlex Canola Hybrid with excellent yield potential. Strong disease package with multigenic blackleg and 2nd generation clubroot resistance
CS2600 CR-T – Early season TruFlex Canola Hybrid with excellent yield potential.

There will be a 
NEW LibertyLink variety with PodProtect releasing for the coming season as well. More to come with this one!
 
Early booking deadlines are below and they are hard deadlines as we need to enter a customer to achieve these discounts.
  • Order by October 15th - $45/bag discount
  • Order by November 15th - $35/bag discount
  • Order by December 15th - $30/bag discount
Must be a minimum of 16 bags to get discounts.

​Contact Blair Balog at 403-634-4349 (call or text) or [email protected] for pricing or for any questions!


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Straw Value

14/9/2023

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Winter crops such as winter wheat and hybrid fall rye can produce a bit more straw per ac compared to spring wheats. If you are on dryland and need the straw that can help you, and on irrigation if selling straw, the winter crops can make you more $ per ac.
The price of winter wheat / feed wheat is pretty close to CWRS this fall making winter wheat look pretty good in this chart. Winter wheat yields can be 20% more vs spring wheats as well. 
The straw yield can be about double that of spring wheat due to taller plants and more tillers.
Thanks to Mitch Bos for helping me with these numbers.

Straw does have a nutrient value, here are links to information on that: 
​
https://www.grainews.ca/columns/selling-nutrients-the-last-straw/
https://www.albertawheatbarley.com/the-growing-point/articles-library/cereal-straw-a-hidden-value-on-your-farm?setcommission=alberta-wheat
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AAC Hybrid Brown 18 vs Centennial Brown Mustard

11/9/2023

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Below is a comparison on maturities between Centennial brown mustard (Left) and AAC Brown 18  hybrid brown mustard (Right).

These two varieties were compared under irrigation, but on dryland those extra days the hybrid brown mustard has over centennial could help keep quality and yield in the bitter days of summer!
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2024 Seed Sales

5/9/2023

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Check out our 2024 lineup and let Blair know if you have questions:
​Blair Balog:
Cell: 403-634-4349 (calls & text)
Office: 403-739-2233
Email: [email protected]
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Hybrid Fall Rye Information Presentation

5/9/2023

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If you have some time, you can watch this YouTube presentation we hosted about hybrid fall rye. Some changes may include varieties and the 1 unit per ac is the new suggested use rate. 
https://youtu.be/hOHOmEFZhIM
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Field Preparation For Oat or Fall Crop Seeding

5/9/2023

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We have talked to a few customers and agronomists who have mentioned field preparation was more important than they first thought. They noticed that a tillage with a harrow packer pass allowed for better germination and more even crop.

If the fall crop seeding is early enough it may make sense to spend time to make sure there is not heavy residue in spots from combines stopping, water up, volunteer barley or hailed crop and make sure you can kill it before your fall crop is seeded or is up. 
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1 Unit Suggested Hybrid Fall Rye Use Rate

5/9/2023

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As seed companies learn more about fall rye use, it seems 1 unit (1 million viable seeds per ac = 23 seeds target) is becoming the standard use rate. On tougher years it would allow for more plant loss before a crop is unfit and help advance fall growth faster when seeding September 10th onward in S AB or Sept 1 onward in other areas. If seeding late August 0.8 of a unit may still be ok as it will have time to tiller.
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Winter Cereal Incentive

5/9/2023

1 Comment

 
This fall there is a winter cereals incentive program where you get paid to grow a winter crop. (Rye, Winter Wheat, Triticale). See Flyer below with details. 

The idea is that if you grow 30% more of any winter cereals over and above your previous year you can receive $20/acre. Production size for the program is minimum 60 ac. and maximum 250 ac per farm.
Email [email protected] for more information and to let her know what you are planning. 


Winter Crop Varieties Available Now
KWS Serafino Hybrid Fall Rye - ready to ship, Top yielding grain (with low ergot) & top forage hybrid fall rye! Forage trial info here
AC Hazlet Traditional Fall Rye 
AAC Wildfire Winter Wheat
Tadeus Fall Triticale New! - yields and stands great!
Barley for cover crop to hold soil
Imperial Seeds cover crop blends (Fall Grazer is a popular one). Please order well ahead of needing so we have it in place for you. https://www.imperialseed.com/production
Call Blair Balog: Cell: 403-634-4349 (calls & text)
Email: [email protected]
Office: 403-739-2233
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1 Comment

Irrigation Water Restrictions for 2024

5/9/2023

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With irrigation water restrictions being a concern for next season, I have heard some people planning to grow a winter crop to reduce next seasons irrigation needs. ​Fall crops can take advantage of the March and April snow and help reduce total water needs for next season. Hybrid fall rye is a more efficient user of water and fertility mainly because of their fibrous root system, here is a chart comparing fall crops https://www.stampseeds.com/hybrid-fall-rye.html
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2023 Fall Crop Grain Yield Demonstration Plots

5/9/2023

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We harvested our fall crops grain yield trials for fall crops and have the chart below.
AAC Coldfront winter wheat was pretty close to Wildfire in the demo but in our seed production fields we saw about 5-7% advantage for the Coldfront over Wildfire. Coldfront is available next summer.
The SU Cossani and SU Performer hybrid fall rye are available next summer as well and did well in the demo.
Keep in mind that the standard bu weight for Triticale is 52, Rye 56, and winter wheat is 60 lbs per bu, so look at the lbs per ac number for direct comparisons of weight.
​

KWS Serafino Hybrid Fall Rye - ready to ship, Top yielding grain (with low ergot) & top forage hybrid fall rye! Forage trial info here
AC Hazlet Traditional Fall Rye 
AAC Wildfire Winter Wheat
Tadeus Fall Triticale New! - yields and stands great!

For Seed Call Blair Balog: Cell: 403-634-4349 (calls & text)
Email: [email protected]
Office: 403-739-2233
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    Authors

    Blair Balog - Seed Specialist at Stamp Seeds
    ​&
    Greg Stamp CCA
    Seed Sales & Marketing at Stamp Seeds

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Seed Treating

We offer a full range of seed treating and inoculant application options:
  • conveyor system for gentle handling
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        • SY Manness HRSW
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      • Malt Barley >
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    • Lentil >
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