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AFSC publishes a yield guide showing reported yields across all the risk areas of Alberta. I do enjoy comparing real world yields but some caution is needed. Some varities are more commonly grown in wetter areas such as the highway 2 corridor vs in at Oyen or near Lethbridge vs near Brooks on dryland. But sometimes if a variety seems well distributed and compares pretty close we can make some inferences. Grainland Durum was one that struck out to me, It is a solid stem and typically suggested for the driest of dryland so it probably goes on soil that is very dry. Last season I would ave expected Stronghold to beat it but according to these charts it held its own and in previous drier years it beat stronghold on average. 
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This fall we installed a crop intelligence probe in our hybrid fall rye plots via Western Tractor. I've enjoyed watching the soil moisture changes after irrigation this fall and snow melt into the soil being detected in the soil in early December. We are hoping we can learn more about water use timing in hybrid fall rye by using this sensor. Note the flat period of soil temperature had snow cover:    Drew thinks the 8 year summer drought in the Southern Prairies might be coming to a close and is optimistic for our areas spring and summer. He also thinks there could be problems for some areas of the USA that could impact some markets. Details here: Interview link
Decisions this spring can impact your winter crops planning
 AAC Brown Elite - New! AAC Brown Elite Hybrid Mustard is a replacement for AAC Brown 18.
Mustard Agronomy
New This Season: Buteo Start is available on all types of mustard for flea beetles & cutworm protection (as long as ordered early) AAC Yellow 80 - Yellow Mustard - composite (up to 9% advantage) Andante - Yellow Mustard Brown Elite - Hybrid Brown Mustard - hybrid (up to 40% advantage) Centennial - Brown Mustard Cutlass - Oriental Mustard Forge - Oriental Mustard AC Vulcan - Oriental Mustard Mustard Buyers: www.johnstonsgrain.com or view Sask Mustard's Buyers List https://saskmustard.com/grower/mustard-buyers-list/ Wanting more information on growing mustard? details here https://saskmustard.com/  If you have kids, or are hiring, what skills are needed? Here is an interesting article from Harvard Business Review
Quotes from the article:
This tweet talks about how tight corn supply and demand numbers are when China stocks are taken out of the equation with a thread below the initial tweet: https://x.com/kannbwx/status/1890060536123097131
Calls have been picking up for Yellow Pea Seed, PS Boost & AAC Beyond Yellow Peas are still available and ready to book/ship.  Malt Barley can be a finicky market and often farmers grow these varieties for feed as well. Chitting (premature spouting) can be a problem as well as high DON in some years, ergot, non barley grains, and low germination. The Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre has some great malt resources. Not all fungicides that are resisted on wheat are registered on malt barley. Some PGR's are registered but ask your malt buyer before you use one. Details lower in the email on PGR use. Bill Coors 100 - early, malt barley contracts with MolsonCoors within Canada AB Dram - 2 row - non GN distilling barley & malting barley SY Stanza - 2 row European style non GN distilling and malting New! (still in market development) CDC Fraser - 2 row - big yields CDC Churchill - 2 row - stands well AAC Synergy - 2 row Malt Barley Fertility Lower in this email I have feed barley fertility, and generally 10-20%+ less vs feed is needed to make sure the protein is in the 10-12% range for maltsters. Too high and extract can be lowered, as well as impact the brewing process. https://www.syngenta.ca/agronomy/good-fertility-balances-yield-protein AB Dram New Crop Contracts Canada Malting is interested in contracting new crop AB Dram 2 Row Malt Barley at a number of its locations, contact them for details: https://canadamalting.com/contact/ It's a unique variety as it is a non GN for distilling and should perform like CDC Copland for yield and standability. We have had yields as high as 140 bu averages with AB Dram and we do use Moddus PGR on irrigation to help it stand (but we do on all barley varieties). 2025 GrainsWest article on AB Dram https://grainswest.com/2025/01/good-to-the-last-drop-2/  Feed or the GP Red Programs can make you more money with less risk when the spread to CWRS is low as they are all about 20% higher yield vs a CWRS. High plant populations, PGR's, and higher fertility is key to making these yield on irrigation. Dryland you may still need more fertility as you are aiming for more yield. AAC Galore VB Soft Wheat - New! (coming soon) AC Sadash VB & AAC Awesome VB are parent lines AC Sadash VB Soft Wheat - Trusted top performer (lower FHB resistance) AAC Paramount VB Soft Wheat AAC Awesome VB Soft GP Wheat - I for FHB and big yields Alotta - GP Wheat - New, Red Spring GP Wheat The soft wheats/ triticale are often used for silage as well.   2 CP Red 11.5+ Program A few elevators have a GP Red Wheat Program (Winter, CPS, GP Red, CWRS) and is currently priced about 96.5% of CWRS. The prices will fluctuate but it may drive more winter wheat acres and maybe more demand for GP reds like the new Alotta (the new GP spring red). I feel like the CPS market has dried up a bit as people are either growing the new CRWS varieties that yield like a CPS (SY Manness CWRS) or the GP reds that can yield up to 20%+ more vs a CWRS.   Crop comparisons as of Feb 8th 2025 for net returns on both irrigation and Dryland. Rent, overhead, machinery are not in these numbers and the yields and prices are complete guesses. Irrigation:   Dryland:   GrainsWest has a great article about AB Dram 2 row non GN malt barley. https://grainswest.com/2025/01/good-to-the-last-drop-2/ Yields like CDC Copeland but has the unique market options for distilling with the non GN traits. AB Dram 2 Row Malt & Distilling Canadian Canola use in USA biofuels could be at risk due to changes to the Clean Fuel Production Credit changes. Details in this Real Agriculture Article
This leads me to worry about the canola market over the next year and more. Also a lot of canola meal goes to USA for feed use as well so that could be impacted if tariffs do come into play. Here is a video from last week talking about when you need to buy Fertlizer for this season and the risk of not buying now: https://youtu.be/gKtb1DHAq2E?si=ftvxN_D2RV9PxWtR
I love the idea of ultra early seeding. Remember when Brian talks ultra early he is talking Feb/ March, here is an article on it: https://www.topcropmanager.com/sponsored/maximizing-cereal-yields/
We have had a few customers blend 2 solid stem durums for dryland use. AAC Grainland Durum is best when very dry (my pick for most years in S AB/SK) and AAC Stronghold Durum is best medium to wet areas (over 40-50 bu it is better vs some others). So, to gain standability and top end yield as well as protect in lower yield situation some people are blending half and half of each! Personally on our dryland I would just use AAC Grainland because we budget about 20-30 bu per ac for yields for our light dryland. Last season we did get 53 bu avg with Grainland though!  Barley is one of the crops we have later bookings for usually, but in recent years it's surprising how well it can fit into a rotation and price point when feed prices are good. Here are some varieties and where they fit.
Barley Agronomy Barley Plant Population: On dryland we see a wide range of plant populations from 12-28 plants per square foot target (I'd suggest about 20 plants). On irrigation we see 20 to 30 plants per square foot with 28 being pretty common. Where we see some changes are with European types and Bill Coors 100 where people are dropping plant populations lower because they tiller more. So 20-25 plants seems to be where people are going to on those. Barley PGR's We love to use PGR's on barley. Generally we like to use Modus on barley, its window is tight so make sure you are at the right timing: https://www.syngenta.ca/productsdetail/moddus/multiple%20crops#application We usually like to spray it as a separate pass from herbicides, although you can tank mix. Sometimes we will even do 2 passes or 1.5 passes in crop depending on the lodging risk. Here is a link to a lodging webinar we hosted: https://youtu.be/iFk9Y4YL4pg?si=WfWRV8nLLqSn8SLR Barley Fertility Generally we make sure there is about 250-275+ lbs per ac of nitrogen on our barley crops. This past year we had high residual N in the soil and we do variable rate so here was one fields example:
Some years and fields we will place a lower rate of N at seeding so the tanks on the drill empty at the same time as the seed and then we come back and spin spread on at the 3-4 leaf stage and water the nitrogen in. This article below showcases old research on advanced barley management's impact on yield, and I think it would be even more with the higher yielding European varieties: https://canadianagronomist.ca/9-3-higher-feed-barley-yield-with-advanced-agronomic-practices/ And a barley fertility article comparing malts to feeds: https://www.topcropmanager.com/does-feed-barley-really-require-more-n-than-malt/ Barley Pests Thrips can impact barley and we have seen them in the boot stage of the crop: https://www.syngenta.ca/pests/insects/thrips--barley/barley Barley can be more prone to disease vs other cereals. This is a crop where I recommend 100% of the time to seed treat as smut can be controlled this way. Net & Spot Blotch, Scald are main diseases of barley: Here are pictures: https://www.countygp.ab.ca/en/living-in-our-community/Pest%20And%20Disease/Barley-Scald.pdf A great disease diagnostic video for barley: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2supHVg2Plc Barley Agronomy from the UK I was sent this link about barley agronomy & seeding rates from the UK for spring barley there and about tiller retention and found it interesting: https://lgseeds.co.uk/barley-yield-is-all-about-tiller-retention/     I feel that the threat of 25% tariffs have already had a long term impact on Canada. It will take some time to sort out the impact for farming for this season and next.
Thoughts:
Shawn Haney of RealAgriculture was in Cambridge Ontario for a SeCan Event Feb 4th, and talked about politics and trade. A few key points from this presentation:
Here is a link to a Real Agriculture article published yesterday regarding trade perspectives: https://www.realagriculture.com/2025/01/new-data-quantifies-canadian-farmers-concern-about-the-impact-of-tariffs-and-prospect-of-a-trade-war/ Lauren Comin of Seeds Canada spoke at the Alberta BC Seed Growers AGM Feb 5 2025. I have some images below from her presentation and I have said similar things to what she says. Here is my takeaway.
What do we do? (Gregs opinion)
If you don't agree with me, what is the solution? Earlier this year I wrote a blog post about this topic asking questions: https://www.stampseeds.com/blog/seed-value-chain Shawn Haney was in Cambridge Ontario for a SeCan Event Feb 4th, and talked about politics and trade. A few key points:
The Durum Summit in Swift Current has some agronomy and breeding sessions. Top takeaways:
At the Durum Summit in Swift Current it was said that most events talk about durum as part of wheat, but here durum takes main stage! Marlene Boersch mercantileventure.com/about/ spoke on market trends in Durum A summary:
I attended the Durum Summit in Swift Current SK, an event bringing industry, farmers, buyers, and breeders together. Keven Hursh talked about the state of the durum industry in Canada and Canadian agriculture.
Mediocre news on the water forecasting for 2025. Most snowpacks are at the lower part of the averages so far. Lots can change as most snow pack comes in February & March so lots can change yet. Reservoirs came into winter at higher levels vs the previous year, so that will help with 2025 water supply. |
AuthorsBlair Balog - Seed Specialist at Stamp Seeds Archives
March 2025
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