Francesco Casillo on Durum Market Prospects for 2024 & Beyond

Here is a blog post from ​https://durodisicilia.wordpress.com/2023/12/31/francesco-casillo-sulle-prospettive-del-mercato-al-2024-ed-oltre/ that was originally in Italian that i used translate to post in English below.
Generally it looks like they think durum production will rise putting pressure on prices.

Posted on December 31, 2023 by Granduro
Dear friends, in this post our interview with Francesco Casillo, a well-known Italian importer/exporter and miller, with whom I often exchange valuable thoughts on the durum wheat market.
In this phase of the break of the campaign I asked him to publicly take stock of the market situation, answering a series of questions asked by me and some readers (who sent them to me in the previous days as per the notice published on the post). I thank him very much for the passionate participation he has dedicated to us and for the beautiful words spent on the blog and for my analyses (but the infallibility is not guaranteed, as for the weather forecast these are probabilistic and ever-changing scenarios).
I hope that this (sincere) dialogue between subjects in the supply chain, sometimes with opposing interests, can prove to be profitable and interesting for those who approach the durum wheat market in a non-ideological and corporate way. I see it as a further small piece to try to understand, together, the huge mosaic of the market (of durum wheat and beyond), in such a way as to make the most conscious, thoughtful and appropriate professional choices both in the short and long term.
I am pleased to answer the questions that my kind friend Francesco sent me.
However, I cannot, not take the opportunity to congratulate the blog for the level of analysis achieved which, believe me, is of the highest level and that so many professional operators in this sector remotely have.
From Turkey and Russia, until the end of the campaign, how much grain do you expect to be exported to the world?
300/400 k tonnes could still come out of Turkey on paper. There are rumors that a Tmo (Turkish state body that regulates the Turkish domestic market) may soon come out, but in Turkey there are never certainties and often decisions taken by state bodies are suddenly annulled or changed. Surely if this market indiscretion were to materialize, the quantity sold would cover the needs of Tunisia until a new harvest.
As for Russian durum wheat, export was banned until June 2024 and therefore, except for a few previously married cargo on Baltic ports (max 30/40k tm), hard wheat will not be loaded into Russia in the next 6 months.
Turkey and Russia new competitors, how do you see them in perspective in the coming years? As aggressive as in this campaign?
We are in a globalised market. A free market. It is therefore clear that those who have the availability of wheat or the need for valuable currency act for their own account in the market. Keep in mind that in Russia and Turkey the margins of origination are very high (what exporters earn after paying farmers and logistics costs) and therefore as soon as the wave of speculative farmers' sales arrives, exporters overturn it on international markets making big gains. The higher the spread between hard and tender the stronger the sales flow of farmers who are pretty happy to sell at prices in some cases double those of tender even if a better knowledge of the market would suggest better time management of sales.
In perspective, do you see other possible new durum wheat exporting nations on the horizon?
The last few years in which very high durum wheat prices compared to soft wheat prices have definitely led some countries to invest seriously in durum wheat. And I believe it will be a lasting trend. Even the genetics every year makes progress so there are varieties that make excellent yields (comparable to those of the tender) even in cold regions and not traditionally suited to durum wheat. If this year Turkey was the state that produced the most durum wheat in the world, we have news that for the current growing season even this primacy can be confirmed if the weather conditions allow it with a production that could be close to 5 ml of tons. Many Eastern European countries (Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria) are also increasing durum wheat production with percentages of increase of between 10 and 20%. And finally, Russia, which produces 90 million tons of soft wheat with great ease, could also produce 2-3 ml of tons of hard wheat instead of soft.
Could Ukraine's eventual entry into the EU upset the European cereal sector?
As with the hard, we are also in a free market and already now (it's been over 3 years if I'm not mistaken) there are no duties to import Ukrainian durum and soft wheat into Europe. (I remember that soft grains of strength over 15.3 protein there are no duties while for all the other soft wheat that enters Europe pays a duty of only 12 euros, while for the hard, as mentioned, there are no duties). So Ukrainian soft wheat already arrives normally in Europe at world market prices. There has been a lot of talk this year about the protests of farmers in the neighboring European nations for the low prices of Ukrainian wheat that destroyed the incomes of neighboring producers only because during the war not being able to use the ports, the whole mass of wheat could only come out by land and the desperate Ukrainians, in time of war, sold to those who were able to export even at prices of 70/80 usd per ton. This is obviously a special situation. However, as with Russia, Ukraine is also beginning to know about the cultivation of the hard that it could sell with small spreads on the price of soft wheat.
It seems that in Tunisia they require green coloring for consignments of livestock wheat that they import to make them always distinguishable from edible wheat (for example from Ukraine), do you think that in the EU the adoption of this practice could help to discourage any fraud?
As mentioned, the duty on common wheat (if not of high quality or coming from Ukraine) is only 12 euros and that in the world 20/30% of common wheat is used for livestock use in competition with corn. So in Europe there is no basis for carrying out fraud on the import from third countries of common wheat fodder (which, by the way, costs only a few euros less than breadable wheat and is downgraded mainly for specific weight). I would add that Europe is an exporter of soft fodder wheat and it is therefore very difficult for users to buy it from third countries by paying the duty of EUR 12 while it can circulate freely within the Community. In Tunisia, being the market regulated by the state, with domestic prices imposed, then this system is used (like in Italy the coloring of agricultural diesel that is sold at lower prices but can be safely used for normal diesel vehicles).
https://ciss-group.com/service/survey/survey-by-industry/agri-commodities/other-services-and-inspections-of-agricultural-products/481-soloration.html


The mills in Italy will start grinding again in the coming months and as a result domestic demand will grow (given that at the moment the grinding rates appear to be decreasing, considering the increases in the prices of by-products ed)?
Unlike in recent years, we see a greater demand for foreign pasta (but we are talking about increases of a few percentage points) against an internal market that has been declining physiologically for a few years (and this could open a wide discussion about this). So 2024 starts with discreet prospects for wheat consumption. Beware that the prices of the by-products of wheat grinding derive not only from the grinding of the mills but also from the export of bran we make and from the prices of other fodder cereals (including soft wheat). Let's remember that all markets are like communicating vessels.
How much total wheat does Italy expect to need this year? Are the current imports sufficient or do you have a further need for imports?
Official data do not exist. Every mill and trader make estimates. That said, in principle, to equalize the budget, Italy in the current season would have to import 2,3/2.5 ml of tm of wheat (just below 40% of the needs). So far, estimates indicate an EU- and non-EU import of 1.6 ml of tm. So we continue to import and the price of foreign wheat will decide the price of Italian wheat in the coming months. What this price will be is not easy to say. I do not predict big changes both rising and decreasing but surely Francesco is able to make forecasts and above all update them week by week because many things can happen especially in reference to what will be the harvest in Italy for next year and therefore my forecasts could easily leave the time they find ....
Are you afraid of a reduction in durum wheat production in Italy (following various factors such as CAP, ecological transition, unsatisfactory incomes) in favor of a greater use of imports in the coming years, do you see this scenario as realistic and possibly worrying for domestic supplies in the future?
This question is very inspiring. I just try to read what will happen based on what I know today. Nor do I root for a hypothesis rather than the opposite. In the world the production of total of hard and tender is 700 ml of tm (we are not so much to thin with the precise numbers). Of this amount about 5% is durum wheat or 35 ml of tm. If, as I told you in a previous answer, new competitors will start producing durum wheat, imagine what it can mean to move even 1% of the market??? We could find on the market 7 ml more tm (which is the current production of Europe....). And in this situation the prices of the hard will tend to align with those of the tender. And the countries that have higher production costs or that have rules (let's politely call them mental elucubrations...) very penalized that you know very well will throw their weapons. Already in Italy the production of wheat is in a structural decline and, in my opinion, this trend will continue. I predict (based on this personal narrative of mine) that within a few years our production may fall below 3 ml of tm and our degree of self-sufficiency will become similar to that of the tender (where we import almost 60% of our needs). I am sorry but we are losing this food sovereignty if we have not already lost it not because of the incompetence of the competent Minister Lollobrigida but because of the rules that we must follow decided in Brussels. Measures to combat imports cannot change this sad truth (I am certainly not referring to the tight import controls that are indeed welcome, and are taking an alibi to some of our former senator friends). Now saying whether to be worried or not is a poorly asked question for me. I am concerned if we all do not realize this reality. I am confident if instead we focus the problems and organize ourselves all according to our own interests to take advantage of them while respecting the rules. For example, with this awareness, farmers will already be able to start evaluating alternative cultures. Or they could continue in the so far commendable effort to increase the quality of Italian wheat which should have a free price of world prices because it is unique in quality and origin. But the same should reflect the Italian pasta factories, which have made the choice to produce with Italian wheat semolina, and which should close multi-year contracts at an adequate fixed price and not on a list as they do now.
In general, is the world cereal market, in your opinion, in an uptrend or a downtrend?
The world cereal market, like most commodities, is in a bearish cycle. This cycle should last at least another 18/24 months. Obviously net of the weather and rate policy
What do you think of Euronext's durum wheat future and what advantages, if it were to go to a funce, could it bring to agricultural producers?
In my opinion it is a fundamental tool of risk management. All over the world it is used on soft corn on soybeans on gas on oil, on sugar, on all commodities. Even in Italy it is quite used on the soft wheat market. I honestly can't understand this mental closure to something born to protect farmers in the first te ne t. In January, a committee of innovators and market supporters will begin trading lots in the market, committing on a voluntary basis to give the market a dynamic by buying a few lots every day. Next, the largest buyers of Italian wheat will start buying at a premium on this index. We will see if it will be successful, but we have to try without prejudice.
How do you judge the impact on the grain origin label supply chain on pasta packages?
I consider it positive for the Italian wheat for the pasta sold in Italy. And it rightly helps the quotations of Italian wheat. Instead, it is an own goal for pasta factories that export Italian pasta abroad and cannot put references to Italy in the box if they do not use Italian wheat. Things instead that quietly make foreign competitors (Tunisians, Mexicans, Iranians, Saudis, and so on) .... Our ability to hurt ourselves and destroy an industry is crazy.
What do you look like about the new controls announced by the Ministry of Agriculture on imports, from your point of view as an importer?
Already in a previous interview on this blog (if I remember correctly) I was hoping for the carpet checks. I am happy that the alibis to criminalize the import activity can finally fall and therefore end the many humiliations that so far more or less have suffered ...
In your opinion, what are the prospects for the price of durum wheat in Italy from January to the new Mediterranean Harvest 2024?
I've already answered
What do you think about the work of the blog and the quality of the information it disseminates?
I have already answered and invited Francesco, soul of the Blog to become a professional analyst at the service of a wider community that needs intelligent food for thought. But he doesn't want to hear me. Perhaps this is why his analyses are really free and infallible ...