Tariffs!

I feel that the threat of 25% tariffs have already had a long term impact on Canada. It will take some time to sort out the impact for farming for this season and next. 

Thoughts:

• It may cause USA buyers to contract things in the USA like oats and other crops typically sourced in Canada.
  • This could cause next seasons prices to be lower in some crops if USA buyers encourage production in the USA.
• Risk of tariffs may cause industry to plan expansions in the USA vs Canada.
• Crops with other export options vs the USA or trade flow adjustments to crops that normally go through the USA, might be best to grow (many crops flow through the USA but are not used there). If more crops are sent via Canada, there may be more pressure on our transport system.
• If the CAD drops and or there are not substitutes currently for what we grow and sell to the USA a tariff may not be as large of an impact.
• Beef flow may be impacted in animals coming and going to the USA. Will that impact calf prices? And will it impact feed prices up or down?
• Lots of corn has been coming into Canada, if that is restricted it could boost feed barley / wheat / rye prices.
• The CAD dropped, that will reduce the impact somewhat on crop flowing to the USA.
• A link to an article from yesterday on what crops would be hit the hardest: https://www.producer.com/markets/u-s-tariffs-would-affect-canadian-crops-differently/

Shawn Haney of RealAgriculture was in Cambridge Ontario for a SeCan Event Feb 4th, and talked about politics and trade.
A few key points from this presentation:

• The USA wants to go away from integrated supply chains
• Political back and forth could be compared to the choreography of wrestling in some instances.
• Canada is in a bad spot due to parliament being prorogued.
• Bill 282 to isolate dairy from trade would cause more issues of the USA with Canada.
• A conservative government may not change the trade issues.
• Agriculture is more tied to the USA for trade than most of us know and it keeps growing with a dropping CAD and close access to the USA.
• ​The next 4 years will be full of turmoil in trade.

Links to some of Shaun's slides from the event: https://www.stampseeds.com/blog/shaun-haney-of-real-agriculture

Here is a link to a Real Agriculture article published yesterday regarding trade perspectives: https://www.realagriculture.com/2025/01/new-data-quantifies-canadian-farmers-concern-about-the-impact-of-tariffs-and-prospect-of-a-trade-war/